We've already talked about the the fact that the exit polls usually ask Republicans more questions about religion than they ask Democrats, and that that is often a problem. (See, for example, Katie Barge for some good arguments about why Democratic exit poll questions regarding evangelical affiliation are merited.) It seems to me that a related problem is the way in which some journalists are reporting on the data they have. For example, here's an excerpt from an AP piece highlighting some findings from exit polls across the "Super Tuesday" primary states.
Highlights from results of exit polling in the Super Tuesday primary states for The Associated Press and television networks. . . .
KEEPING THE FAITH
White, born again, evangelical Christians voted mostly for Huckabee, who got 38 percent of their vote. Thirty percent voted for McCain, while just 27 percent voted for Romney. Huckabee won in Alabama, Tennessee and his home state of Arkansas, states where two-thirds of the voters were born-again Christians. Evangelicals have been Huckabee's base, and they also helped him win in Georgia, his standing bolstered by the six in 10 Republican voters there who were evangelicals. But in California, Romney, McCain and Huckabee ran about even among evangelicals.
This report (or at least the first few sentences of it) creates the impression that all white evangelical Christians in the "Super Tuesday" primary states voted for Republicans, when the truth is that the exit polls did not ask those who voted Democratic whether they were evangelicals, so we simply don't have that information. When the playing field is not level on religion questions, the least media outlets could do, it seems to me, is ensure that these kinds of results are not presented as if they reflect the votes of all evangelical Christians. The story referenced above, for example, could have described the data as Republican exit poll data from the outset.
Other reports on the polling data did somewhat better on this score, even if they did contain other problematic elements.
For example, here's how the data was presented regarding New Jersey voters.
Some highlights of data from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the New Jersey presidential primary Tuesday. . . .
THE CHURCH CROWD
GOP voters who attended religious services, a bloc that accounted for seven of eight Republican voters, favored McCain. The born-again or evangelical Christian vote, one-fifth of the GOP total, found no clear favorite among McCain, Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, once a Southern Baptist minister.
On the positive side, the report does say that it is a summary of Republican data. On the negative side, the header combined with the fact that the data highlights only Republican data on religion (there was also data on religion for New Jersey Democratic voters) makes it look as if the "church crowd" is the GOP crowd.
Similarly, here's how the story on the Georgia exit polls handled the relevant data.
Highlights of data from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the Georgia presidential primaries Tuesday. . . .
CHRISTIANS AND CONSERVATIVES
Fully two-thirds of Georgia's Republican voters described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, and 70 percent said it was important that their candidate share their religious beliefs. Mike Huckabee took about four in 10 of born-again and evangelical voters, while Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney split the remainder.
Voters describing themselves as conservative or very conservative split among Huckabee and Romney. Those voters made up nearly 70 percent of the Republican electorate. McCain, meanwhile, fared strongly among self-described moderates, who made up about one quarter of the voters.
Again, on the positive side, this report does indicate that this is Republican data. On the negative side, however, the header coupled with the focus only on Republican data tends to suggest that all Christians vote in ways that are politically conservative, which they do not. The story on the Alabama data did the same thing. It is important to note that New Jersey, Georgia, and Alabama had data on Democratic religious voters, but they did not use it in these summaries. It would have been better if some religious data from the Democratic exit polls had also been included. If that data is not used, however, it seems to me that the headers should instead be something like "Politically Conservative Christians" or "Republican Christians."
The AP story on the Tennessee exit polls did a better job. Here's an excerpt:
Highlights of exit polling from the Super Tuesday primaries in Tennessee, according to interviews conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks. . . .
RELIGION
Two-thirds of voters in the GOP primary considered themselves white evangelical or born-again Christians. Huckabee did best among these voters, while McCain and Romney did better among other groups. In the Democratic primary, Clinton did best among Protestants and Catholics. Three out of four GOP voters said it was important for candidates to share their religious beliefs. Huckabee, the former Baptist preacher, did better the greater that sentiment.
There is some mention of the Democratic religious data, even though the Republican data dominates. And, to the reporter's credit, it is clear when he or she is talking about Republican exit data and when the reporter is talking about Democratic exit data. The header isn't problematic because the summary contains information from both red and blue exit polls.
Better still were stories on the Connecticut exit poll data. There were two of them, one discussing the Republican exit poll and the other discussing the Democratic exit poll, both containing religion-related data.
I don't pretend to be an expert on the process of constructing or reporting on exit polls, and I am not suggesting that reporters should ignore what is important just to create balance. But it seems to me that there are strong arguments for leveling the playing field on religion-related exit poll questions. Those arguments have not prevailed yet, but perhaps they will in the future if the pressure continues. The best course, I believe, is for the same religious questions to be asked of both Democrats and Republicans.
Even if the playing field is not leveled in terms of the number and types of religious questions, however, reporters can and should include some data from both sides. Democratic as well as Republican religion-related data will contain noteworthy findings of some sort.
If reporters choose instead to highlight only religion-related findings from the Republican exit polls, they can still improve their coverage of these matters. In that case, they should say that they are summarizing Republican data and the headers for that information should somehow reflect that fact.
To some, this kind of parsing and criticism may seem like nit-picking. But given the power of the media in shaping our thoughts on these issues, the large role religion may be playing on both sides of the aisle in this election, and the sensitive and important nature of religion-related issues in America, it seems to me that these things merit the kind of scrutiny they are currently receiving.
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